Accountability · Weather-adjusted predictions
Our track record
Every prediction is stored before kickoff and graded after the final whistle, next to the same model with the weather ignored, so you can see what the weather was worth.
Grading starts after the first games
Predictions are graded once the final score and box score are in. The record fills in from there.
About the predictions
How are the predictions made?
Each team gets an opponent-adjusted rating for scoring, passing and rushing from its results this season and last (recent games count more). Then the kickoff forecast adjusts the game: wind, rain, snow, cold and heat each change scoring, passing, rushing and turnovers by amounts measured on past games with their observed weather. Bad weather also narrows the expected margin, which pulls win chances toward 50/50.
What is a backtest?
A backtest replays past weeks: for each week the model only sees games played before it and uses the weather that was measured during the game. It shows how the method performs on many games. Live predictions are made from the forecast before kickoff and frozen at kickoff; both are labelled.
Is this betting advice?
No. CFB Weather does not publish odds, lines or betting advice. These are weather-adjusted predictions for fans, graded in public.
Can predictions be changed after the game?
No. Every prediction is stored with the time it was made. The page shows the last one made before kickoff, and the grade is computed from the final score and box score.