Prediction model
How our prediction model works
Most predictions treat every game as if it were played indoors. Ours starts from how good each team is, then asks what this game's weather does to scoring, passing, running and kicking, and grades every call in public.
What it predicts
- Winner and win chanceWho wins, and how sure the model is
- The scoreWith the weather and without it, so you see what the weather is worth
- Team yardsPassing and rushing yards and turnovers for each side
- Player chancesEach key player's yards and chance to score a touchdown
- Field-goal rangeHow far a kick carries toward each end zone, with the wind
How it works
- 1
How good each team is
2,731 games fitted
Every result feeds a rating of each team's offense and defense. Recent games count more than old ones, and home field is worth about 3.8 points.
- 2
What the weather does
Wind, rain, snow, cold and heat each move scoring, passing and running by a learned amount. Each effect starts from published football weather research and leans on our own games as they add up (the table below). The forecast counts as it stands: a 30% shower risk weighs less than a certain downpour.
- 3
The players
±0.8 pts between touchdown chances and what happened
Each team's projected yards and touchdowns are shared out by how it has used its players lately; across 8,426 player calls the chances held up.
- 4
Graded in public
955 backtest games graded
Every call is stored before kickoff, locked at kickoff and graded after the final whistle, misses included, next to the same model with the weather ignored. See every call.
What the weather is worth, per team
| Weather | Points | Passing yds | Rushing yds | Games learned from |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Every 10 mph16 km/h of wind above 10 mph16 km/h | −1.7 | −22 | +5 | 350 |
| Each 0.2 in5 mm of rain during the game | −0.9 | −14 | +2 | 538 |
| Each 1 in2.5 cm of snow | −1.0 | −14 | +4 | 0 |
| Every 10°F5.6°C below 40°F4°C at kickoff | −0.2 | −17 | +4 | 2 |
| Every 10°F5.6°C above 90°F32°C at kickoff | +0.0 | +2 | −3 | 186 |
Per team, per game, against the same game in calm weather. Team-games played in each condition; with few games, the effect leans on published football weather research.
Until enough of this season is graded, the record numbers come from a backtest: past seasons predicted week by week using only what was known before each game.
Every game, weather included
The model does not know about injuries, suspensions, depth-chart changes or motivation. It is a weather-aware baseline, graded where you can see it.
For entertainment and education, not betting advice. We publish no odds, lines or totals and do not work with sportsbooks. Terms